Is there a correlation between larger local earthquakes and the end of eruptions at Mount Etna volcano, Sicily?     

Stefano Gresta  Warner Marzocchi  Francesco Mulargia 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,116(1):230-232

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Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models     

Mark S. Bebbington 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):921-942

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.  相似文献   

Pre-eruptive and syn-eruptive conditions in the Black Butte, California dacite: Insight into crystallization kinetics in a silicic magma system     

Molly C. McCanta  Malcolm J. Rutherford  Julia E. Hammer 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007,160(3-4):263-284

A series of experiments and petrographic analyses have been run to determine the pre-eruption phase equilibria and ascent dynamics of dacitic lavas composing Black Butte, a dome complex on the flank of Mount Shasta, California. Major and trace element analyses indicate that the Black Butte magma shared a common parent with contemporaneously erupted magmas at the Shasta summit. The Black Butte lava phenocryst phase assemblage (20 v.%) consists of amphibole, plagioclase (core An_77.5), and Fe–Ti oxides in a fine-grained (< 0.5 mm) groundmass of plagioclase, pyroxene, Fe–Ti oxides, amphibole, and cristobalite. The phenocryst assemblage and crystal compositions are reproduced experimentally between 890 °C and 910 °C, ≥ 300 MPa, X_H2O = 1, and oxygen fugacity = NNO + 1. This study has quantified the extent of three crystallization processes occurring in the Black Butte dacite that can be used to discern ascent processes. Magma ascent rate was quantified using the widths of amphibole breakdown rims in natural samples, using an experimental calibration of rim development in a similar magma at relevant conditions. The majority of rims are 34 ± 10 μm thick, suggesting a time-integrated magma ascent rate of 0.004–0.006 m/s among all four dome lobes. This is comparable to values for effusive samples from the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and slightly faster than those estimated at Montserrat. A gap between the compositions of plagioclase phenocryst cores and microlites suggests that while phenocryst growth was continuous throughout ascent, microlite formation did not occur until significantly into ascent. The duration of crystallization is estimated using the magma reservoir depth and ascent rate, as determined from phase equilibria and amphibole rim widths, respectively. Textural analysis of the natural plagioclase crystals yields maximum growth rates of plagioclase phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites of 8.7 × 10^− 8 and 2.5 × 10^− 8 mm/s, respectively. These rates are comparable to values determined from time-sequenced samples of dacite erupted effusively from Mount St. Helens during 1980 and indicate that syneruptive crystallization processes were important during the Black Butte eruptive cycle.  相似文献   

珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶元素成分的监测及分析   总被引：9，自引：8，他引：9  

张仁健  邹捍  王明星  周立波  朱光华 《高原气象》2001,20(3):234-238

对珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶化学民分进行了观测和分析。初步分析结果表明，珠峰地区大气气溶胶以Al,Ca,Si,K,Fe等地壳元素为主，地壳元素占总元素浓度的82％以上。S,Pb等与人类活动影响有关的污染元素含量很低。元素S浓度为91．64ng.m^-3，元素Pb浓度仅为2．93ng.m^-3，接近于格陵兰地区的浓度，从气富集因子来看，来自地壳成分元素的富集因子要小于北京地区。而As,Pb等与人类活动有关的气溶胶元素的富集因子也比北京地区低得多。研究表明，人类活动对珠峰地区的影响很小。  相似文献   

天目山柳杉树轮δ¹³C对华东地区降水序列的重建          下载免费PDF全文

吕军  屠其璞  钱君龙 《大气科学学报》2001,24(3):350-355

对采自天目山的柳杉树轮进行交叉定年后,得到树轮的δ¹³C年序列。将δ¹³C年序列去除大气CO₂的影响,保留其高频振荡部分。利用华东地区部分气象站的降水资料,通过主成份分析,分析了降水与树轮δ¹³C之间的关系。考虑滞后效应,利用回归方法重建了过去一百多年来的华东地区不同时段的降水序列,并分析其变化特征。  相似文献   

生态旅游胜地—九顶山   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

廖声萍  郭建强 《四川地质学报》2001,21(4):241-245

对九顶山的生物景观，水体景观，地质遗迹景观，天然气景观和人文景观等方面进行了详尽的描述，并划分出平水河景区，云湖景区，楠木沟景区，紫岩山景区，白云山景区，仙女洞景区和天池景区等七个景区，从科学性，美学性，文化性以及区位条件和功能方面对景观进行了评述。进而提出了开发的初步构想。  相似文献   

黄山第四纪泥砾沉积物的成因分析   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

周秉根  李刚 《冰川冻土》1992,14(4):360-365

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Mascali,Mount Etna Region Sicily: An Example of Fascist Planning During the 1928 Eruption and Its Continuing Legacy     

Chester  David K.  Duncan  Angus M.  Dibben  Christopher  Guest  John E.  Lister  Philip H. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):29-46

The 1928 eruption of Etna, Sicily, although the largest such event this century, has not been studied in detail. In this paper the nature of the eruption, the destruction it caused – including the complete devastation of the town of Mascali (pre-eruption population 2,000) – and emergency responses of the authorities to it are reviewed in the context of fascist politics and planning priorities. It is contended that, although at one level the response to the 1928 eruption was successful, at another fascism merely continued and enhanced a reactive, propitiatory approach to hazard mitigation. We argue that this legacy was not successfully overcome until the middle of the nineteen eighties. Finally contemporary Italian moves towards a more proactive approach to disaster planning, both generally and in the context of Etna, are discussed.  相似文献   

The 1999 and 2000 eruptions of Mount Cameroon: eruption behaviour and petrochemistry of lava     

C.?E.?Suh  S.?N.?Ayonghe  R.?S.?J.?SparksEmail author  C.?Annen  J.?G.?Fitton  R.?Nana  A.?Luckman 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(4):267-281

Mount Cameroon (4,095 m high and with a volume of ~1,200 km³) is one of the most active volcanoes in Africa, having erupted seven times in the last 100 years. This stratovolcano of basanite and hawaiite lavas has an elliptical shape, with over a hundred cones around its flanks and summit region aligned parallel to its NE--SW-trending long axis. The 1999 (28 March–22 April) eruption was restricted to two sites: ~2,650 m (site 1) and ~1,500 m (site 2). Similarly, in the eruption in 2000 (28 May–19 June), activity occurred at two sites: ~4,095 m (site 1) and ~3,300 m (site 2). During both eruptions, the higher vents were more explosive, with strombolian activity, while the lower vents were more effusive. Accordingly, most of the lava (~8×10⁷ m³ in 1999 and ~6×10⁶ m³ in 2000) was emitted from the lower sites. The 1999–2000 lavas are predominantly basanites with low Ni (5–79 ppm), Cr (40–161 ppm) and mg numbers (34–40). Olivine (Fo_77–85, phenocrysts and Fo_68–72, microlites), clinopyroxene (Wo₄₇En₄₁Fs₁₀ to Wo₅₁En₃₄Fs₁₅), plagioclase (An_49–67) and titanomagnetite are the principal phenocryst and groundmass phases. The lavas contain xenocrysts of olivine and clinopyroxene, which are interpreted as fragments of intrusive rocks disrupted by magma ascent. Major and trace element characteristics point to early fractionation of olivine. The clinopyroxenes (Al₂O₃ 1.36–7.83 wt%) have high Al^iv/Al^vi ratios (1.3–1.8) and are rich in TiO₂, characteristics typical of low pressure clinopyroxenes. Geochemical differences between the 1999–2000 lavas and those from previous eruptions, such as higher Nb/Zr of the former, suggest that different eruptions discharged magmas that evolved differently in space and time. Geophysical and petrological data indicate that these fractionated magmas originated just below the geophysical Moho (at 20–22 km) in the lithospheric mantle. During ascent, the magmas disrupted intrusions and earlier magma pockets. The main ascent path is below the summit, where newly arrived magma degasses. Degassed magma simultaneously intrudes the flank rift zones where most lava is extruded.An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Was a dacite dome implicated in the 9,500 <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">b.p.</Emphasis> collapse of Mt Ruapehu? A palaeomagnetic investigation     

Elizabeth?McClellandEmail author  Patrick?S.?Erwin 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(4):294-305

Constraining the process by which volcanoes become unstable is difficult. Several models have been proposed to explain the driving forces which cause volcanic edifices to catastrophically collapse. These include models for destabilisation of volcanic flanks by wedging due to dyke intrusion and the weakening of mechanical properties by pressurisation of pore fluids. It is not known which, if any, of the models are relevant to particular sector collapse events. Recent developments in the palaeomagnetic estimation of emplacement temperatures of volcaniclastic rocks have shown that even relatively low emplacement temperatures can be recorded by volcaniclastics with high fidelity. We have carried out a palaeomagnetic study of emplacement temperatures to investigate the role of igneous activity in the initiation of the 9,500 b.p. Murimotu sector collapse of Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand. This debris avalanche deposit has three fades which are stratigraphically superimposed, and the lowermost fades contains three lithological assemblages representing different segments of the edifice which were transported with little internal mixing within the flow. We have determined that some of the dacite-bearing assemblage 1, fades 1 was hot (∼350 °C) during transport and emplacement, whereas none of the other lithological assemblages of fades contained hot material. Our interpretation is that a dacite dome was active on the ancient Ruapehu edifice immediately prior to the Murimotu sector collapse. The partially cooled carapace of the dome and material shed from this part was incorporated into the avalanche deposit, along with cold lavas and volcaniclastics. We have not found evidence for incorporation of material at or close to magmatic temperatures, at least in the sampled locations. Our palaeomagnetic work allows us to develop a comprehensive, new palaeomagnetic classification of volcaniclastics. Published online: 25 January 2003 Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell  相似文献